Ethiopia and Eritrea: An Uneasy Peace on the Brink?

 

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Isaias Afeworki/Photo: Anadolu Agency

The Horn of Africa has long been a hotbed of geopolitical tension, with Ethiopia and Eritrea sharing a history of war, uneasy peace, and shifting alliances. Recent developments suggest that the fragile peace between these two nations may once again be under threat. While the 2018 peace agreement was hailed as a diplomatic triumph, underlying tensions remain unresolved, raising fears of renewed hostilities. This analysis delves into the historical context, the current situation, and the potential ramifications of a deteriorating relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

A History of Conflict and Reconciliation

Ethiopia and Eritrea have a long and complicated history that has shaped their current relationship. Eritrea was an Ethiopian province until 1993 when it gained independence after a prolonged struggle. However, the borders between the two nations remained disputed, leading to the 1998-2000 war that resulted in approximately 100,000 deaths and massive displacement.

The Algiers Agreement, signed in 2000, formally ended the conflict, but tensions persisted for nearly two decades. In 2018, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki signed a peace deal, which earned Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize. This agreement reopened diplomatic ties, allowing trade and movement between the two nations. However, it failed to address deeper issues, including border demarcation and political mistrust.

The Current State of Affairs

Despite the 2018 peace accord, Ethiopia and Eritrea's relationship has remained ambiguous. The situation took a significant turn with the Tigray War (2020-2022), in which Eritrea played a crucial role by supporting the Ethiopian government against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). While this cooperation seemed to indicate a stronger alliance, it also exposed Eritrea’s deep-seated interest in Ethiopia’s internal conflicts.

The war ended with a peace agreement in late 2022, but Eritrea’s role in the conflict raised questions about its long-term objectives. Since then, tensions have resurfaced over multiple issues:

1.      Eritrean Military Presence in Ethiopia: Despite the cessation of hostilities, Eritrean troops reportedly remained in parts of Tigray, leading to accusations of human rights violations and war crimes. While Ethiopia sought to move forward diplomatically, Eritrea’s reluctance to withdraw entirely has fueled distrust.

2.      Border Disputes: The peace deal did not fully settle border demarcation issues, particularly around the disputed Badme region. Periodic skirmishes and local grievances continue to pose a risk of renewed conflict.

3.      Political Ideology and Power Struggles: While Abiy Ahmed has pursued economic and democratic reforms, Isaias Afwerki remains a staunch authoritarian. Their ideological differences create an underlying friction, with Eritrea wary of Ethiopia’s evolving political landscape.

4.      Regional Dynamics: Ethiopia’s relations with other neighbors, including Sudan and Somalia, further complicate its ties with Eritrea. Recent disputes between Ethiopia and Somalia over territorial claims have put additional strain on the regional balance.

The Risk of Renewed Conflict

Although outright war is not inevitable, the risk is increasing due to several factors:

·         Unresolved Grievances: The underlying issues that led to previous conflicts remain unaddressed. Without a comprehensive resolution, hostilities could easily reignite.

·         Military Posturing: Both countries have engaged in military buildup along their border. Eritrea’s highly militarized society and Ethiopia’s ongoing internal instability create a volatile situation.

·         Economic and Political Struggles: Eritrea faces severe economic challenges due to its isolationist policies, while Ethiopia grapples with internal ethnic conflicts and economic difficulties. Both governments may use external conflict as a means of distracting from domestic crises.

·         International Interests: The Horn of Africa remains strategically significant, with global powers such as the U.S., China, and the Gulf states all having vested interests. Any renewed conflict could draw in foreign actors, complicating the situation further.

Possible Scenarios Moving Forward

Given the current trajectory, three possible scenarios could unfold:

1.      Escalation into Conflict: A miscalculation or border skirmish could trigger a larger conflict, potentially drawing in regional actors and exacerbating instability in the Horn of Africa.

2.      Continued Cold Peace: The two nations might maintain a tense but non-violent relationship, with sporadic diplomatic disputes and occasional clashes along their border.

3.      Reconciliation and Cooperation: A renewed diplomatic push, possibly with international mediation, could lead to a more sustainable peace agreement that addresses lingering issues.

Conclusion

Ethiopia and Eritrea’s relationship remains precarious. While the 2018 peace agreement provided a momentary reprieve, unresolved tensions and geopolitical complexities continue to threaten long-term stability. Whether the region descends into conflict again or finds a way to coexist peacefully will depend on diplomatic efforts, political will, and external influences.

For now, the Horn of Africa remains on edge, with Ethiopia and Eritrea once again at a crossroads—between war and a lasting peace that has so far remained elusive.

This article is based on an analysis of various sources, including the latest report by International Crisis Group, historical records, contemporary geopolitical trends, and expert insights on Ethiopia-Eritrea relations.